Why would the Taliban want to shoot down a plane? They’re not terrorists like IS or Al-Qaeda and they’re not antsy enough to shoot down a plane first and think later like Iran are, nor is it an active warzone… They just want to commit human rights violations in peace and shooting down a plane is a golden ticket to foreign intervention.

Green is actual data, white is straight lines connecting the green, but they don’t have data.

The cut across Northern Iran is just a straight line, but they will have stayed north of the border.

Planes don’t fly great circle routes though, there’s overfly fees, weather, mountains, ETOPS and just plain politics… This route looks ordinary compared to some international routes, eg Helsinki to Singapore where you dodge Russia and Ukraine for politics, taking you way below the great circle route, then Turkey for overfly fees and Iran for politics, taking you almost back up to the great circle route, before dipping down again to avoid the Himalayas